PROBABILITY AND POSSIBILITY

In my current state of mind, well, really for most of my adult life, I have wavered between Probability and Possibility.

I speak not of mathematical probability, but reference to experience about what seems probable in general and not with regardt specific happenings or events.  And, while I also look at factors that may predict what seems possible, ultimately, my faith in the human spirit tells me that all things are possible—if not always probable. My consideration of the probable and the possible helps me avoid thinking in and acting out of extremes—that "either-or" mentality, which seems to be the mode and mood of the day and always has been I suppose.

Thinking and acting in extremes ignores both probability and possibility and tends to involve preconceptions with consideration only of that which fits into and affirms them rather than challenges them. When we look at the world picture, we see clearly-drawn opposite perspectives, often without consideration of multi-layered contexts, historical, sociological, psychological, cultural factors. To avoid extremes we must look not only at the big picture, but also focus in on the subtleties, the nuances and the realities of various perspectives.
      I believe there has always been little tolerance for looking deeper, and now, even more so with our nano-second communications of news and social media (within which each extreme finds a niche.) I have been told many times, “You are deep,” which always feels more critique than compliment, to which I inwardly affirm for myself: better to be deep than shallow, remaing on the surface, where I cannot see what lies below it all.

What often lies below it all is the powers that be, seeking to direct and control the narrative in their favor to remain in power and keep us in the dark, off track, apathetic or confused. It is easy to submit to these powers or forces--we need do nothing, especially not think! Then the world can be defined in simple, black and white terms: them and us, good and evil—a zero sum game in which if someone else benefits, we lose. It’s easy to craft that kind of thinking into sound bites where "Perceptions are real and the truth is not" (Imelda Marcos). This is the kind of thinking that engenders team-like loyalty and translates readily into catch phrases to fire up the masses, conjure up worst case scenarios, conspiracies born of fears, reinforcing already held beliefs and opinions, which are often far from the real probabilities or possibilities, but may be self-fulling "prophesies." 
     Nevertheless, this approach speaks to an enormous number of people for whom equivocation and polarization are easier to understand than seeing the larger picture and sorting through the subtleties and nuances that a clearer reality demands--critcal thinking is not a dirty word.

What am I trying to say here? I suppose it is that I am weary just now of attempting to be true to my ideal of equipoise——a balancing act to hold true to my values of freedom, harmony, equality and justice, as it seems more of a struggle to maintain patience, civility, kindness and compassion, when I do not often see those qualities reflected in the wider world around me. Currently, the language and agresson of politicians, commenttors and ideologues seem to live by, not the values I hold deer, but in an ends-justifies-the means approach. And means are getting meaner, louder, more vulgar and unhingled. Is it both probable and possible that the nature of these sources and resources have changed and will continue to change the way we relate to one another? Yes, I think so, but I also believe that while the arc of the moral universe is long and bends toward justice. I want to believe that and do see it from time to time, but it does not seem possible that it will bend quickly enough prevent a further deteriortion of the common good, common sense. I try to look even deeper to see those various perspectives and always remind myself to exepect the unexpected at any moment.

     Anne Frank was able to believe in possibility, even at such a young age and in a dire situation.  She wrote in her diary:

It's difficult in times like these: ideals, dreams and cherished hopes rise us, only to be crushed by grim reality…I see the world being slowly transformed into a wilderness. I hear the approaching thunder….It’s a wonder I haven't abandoned all my ideals; they seem so absurd and impractical. Yet, I cling to them because I still believe, in spite of everything, that people are truly good at heart….I must hold on to my ideals. Perhaps the day will come when I'll be able to realize them.

I read Anne's diary when I was about the same age at she was when she wrote it. I was moved--then and now by her insight and wisdom. It has become a touchstone for me when I am feeling discouraged,  falling into the the "not probable," instead of the "always possible." Anne  believed in the Possible—even if she herself would never realize it in her given place and time. There is a power in her words that can create the courage to light the way, to move and shape lives and the world toward the good, however slowly that arc bends.

     Yes, just now I am worn down by some details of the world picture: chaos, starvation brutality, corruption, malice, perversion and vulgarity and war--always war. Then there is the smaller frame of my own life of a series of illnesses and family situations--with no energy to spare, and seemingly diminished inner resources to cope, so the possible does not seem probable now or at any tiime soon.
     Yet, my core belief in the possible still inevitably rises up and compels me to look even more deeply to also remember the work and efforts of individuals and groups, currenlty and throughout history have come together—again and again—to aspire toward the moral and the true. 

     In doing so, I also see my own life in concentric circles reaching deeper from the world to my inner world where the values I hold dear and strive toward are also all around me at every moment—in my family, my friends and my community—here and now--possible and probable.